Golar LNG: The Market's Only Pure-Play on Floating LNG

Claremont Street Equity Research · LNG Value Chain Top Pick

The case for Golar lines up at every level. The big-picture backdrop for liquefied natural gas (LNG) has shifted to a higher plateau and looks set to stay there, and that backdrop flows almost directly into Golar's revenue. At the company level, Golar is the only independent owner of floating LNG plants available for hire anywhere in the world. Higher prices, a tight market, and a one-of-a-kind business combine into what we see as the single best way to own the LNG value chain.

1. The big picture: LNG repriced, and Golar is wired to it

The Russia-Ukraine and Iran wars have lifted LNG prices onto a structurally higher plateau, not a temporary spike. Blockade risk at the Strait of Hormuz keeps supply uncertain, and damage to Qatar's liquefaction trains plus delays to its North Field expansion deepen the shortfall.

At the same time, new LNG projects keep slipping. Supply forecasts look overstated because they ignore ramp-up and construction delays, while demand forecasts look understated because renewables are running behind schedule, gas-fired power generation is rising, and emerging-market imports keep growing. We expect demand to outrun supply through 2029.

Why this matters for Golar specifically: a large share of its revenue is indexed to LNG and oil prices through Brent, TTF (Europe's benchmark gas price), and FOB (free on board) pricing. When gas moves up, much of that increase lands directly in Golar's earnings.

2. Why Golar: the floating LNG star

A floating LNG plant (FLNG) is, in plain terms, a ship that turns raw natural gas into liquefied, shippable LNG out at sea. A developing country sitting on offshore gas no longer has to finance and build a massive onshore plant. It can simply lease a vessel from Golar.

• Golar is the world's only pure-play FLNG leasing company. Every other floating LNG unit is captive to a specific energy major, so effectively every FLNG the open market can actually hire is Golar's.
• The contracts are built to be low risk, high return: a fixed-fee floor plus variable upside indexed to Brent, TTF, Henry Hub (the US gas benchmark) and FOB. The downside is contracted, while the upside rides the same price surge described above.
• The fleet anchors a step-change in earnings: Hilli (moving from Cameroon to Argentina), Gimi (on the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project), and Fuji (Argentina, from 2028).
• There is optionality on top: a potential fourth vessel and takeover interest. Golar appointed Goldman Sachs as an adviser in March 2026, a signal that strategic options, including a sale, are on the table.

3. What it's worth

We value Golar on EV/EBITDA. Applying a 13.0x target multiple (its average forward multiple during the Russia-Ukraine-war era) to 2028 estimated Adjusted EBITDA of $973.1 mn gives a target price of $97.80. Against the recent $53.39, that is 83.2% upside. Rating: Buy.

The 2028 inflection is the whole story. Adjusted EBITDA roughly triples from $322 mn in 2027 to $973 mn in 2028 as Fuji and the full fleet come online.

4. The numbers

Income statement summary. U.S. dollars in thousands. E = estimate.

5. Key risks to watch

• Price reversal. The thesis leans on LNG staying elevated. A fast de-escalation in either conflict, or Qatar capacity returning sooner, would pull prices and variable revenue down.
• Execution and timing. The earnings jump depends on Gimi and Fuji delivering on schedule. Offshore energy projects slip often.
• Concentration. A small fleet means each vessel and counterparty matters. One contract dispute or outage moves the whole company.
• Valuation. The stock already trades at a rich trailing multiple (48.7x EV/EBITDA), so the upside relies on the forward EBITDA ramp actually arriving.
• Deal risk. The Goldman process could end without a transaction, removing the takeover premium.

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Claremont Street research is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are estimates drawn from company filings and our own modeling and may be incorrect. Do your own research before investing. Prices and figures as of April 28, 2026.