NVIDIA is the dominant designer of graphics processing units and accelerated computing platforms, having successfully pivoted from its gaming origins into the infrastructure backbone of the artificial intelligence era. Its Compute & Networking segment — encompassing Data Center GPUs, the CUDA software ecosystem, and Mellanox networking — now drives the overwhelming majority of revenue, which scaled from $27 billion in fiscal 2023 to $130 billion in fiscal 2025 and is tracking toward an estimated $216 billion in fiscal 2026, a 5-year revenue CAGR of roughly 47%. Gross margins have expanded alongside that volume, reaching ~75% in fiscal 2025 before settling to ~71% in fiscal 2026, and free cash flow has compounded at nearly 59% annually over five years to an estimated $97 billion — a capital generation profile with few historical parallels in the semiconductor industry.
Building verdict…
NVIDIA is the dominant designer of graphics processing units and accelerated computing platforms, having…
NVIDIA Corporation is a leading designer of graphics processors and compute platforms serving the gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. The company generated $60.9 billion in revenue for fiscal 2024 and $130.5 billion in fiscal 2025, reflecting exceptional growth driven by demand for AI infrastructure, with approximately 36,000 employees supporting global operations. NVIDIA's product portfolio spans consumer GPUs for gaming, enterprise solutions for visualization and cloud computing, data center platforms for AI and high-performance computing, autonomous vehicle technologies, and the Omniverse software suite for 3D design.
Its Compute & Networking segment — encompassing Data Center GPUs, the CUDA software ecosystem, and Mellanox networking — now drives the overwhelming majority of revenue, which scaled from $27 billion in fiscal 2023 to $130 billion in fiscal 2025 and is tracking toward an estimated $216 billion in fiscal 2026, a 5-year revenue CAGR of roughly 47%. Gross margins have expanded alongside that volume, reaching ~75% in fiscal 2025 before settling to ~71% in fiscal 2026, and free cash flow has compounded at nearly 59% annually over five years to an estimated $97 billion — a capital generation profile with few historical parallels in the semiconductor industry. The Claremont Street case rests on three pillars: durable pricing power anchored in the CUDA software moat that makes switching to competing hardware costly; an expanding total addressable market as sovereign AI programs, hyperscaler buildouts, and agentic AI workloads drive sustained GPU demand; and a fortress balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.07 and a current ratio above 3.9, providing resilience across cycles. The single most important debate is whether the current revenue trajectory is durable or a front-loaded capex supercycle that will eventually mean-revert.
| Street estimates | FY31E | FY30E | FY29E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue est. | $767.4B | $628.6B | $642.6B | $545.0B |
| EPS est. | $16.78 | $12.29 | $14.24 | $12.34 |
Consensus analyst estimates. “E” denotes estimates, not Claremont figures.
| Fiscal year | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.9B | $9.7B | $11.7B | $10.9B | $16.7B | $26.9B | $27.0B | $60.9B | $130.5B | $215.9B |
| Revenue YoY (%) | 0.0% | 40.6% | 20.6% | -6.8% | 52.7% | 61.4% | 0.2% | 125.9% | 114.2% | 65.5% |
| Gross margin (%) | 58.8% | 59.9% | 61.2% | 62.0% | 62.3% | 64.9% | 56.9% | 72.7% | 75.0% | 71.1% |
| Operating margin (%) | 28.0% | 33.0% | 32.5% | 26.1% | 27.2% | 37.3% | 15.7% | 54.1% | 62.4% | 60.4% |
| Free cash flow | $1.5B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $4.3B | $4.7B | $8.1B | $3.8B | $27.0B | $60.9B | $96.7B |
Figures from company filings as parsed by Claremont Street. Margins are percentages of revenue.
| P/E · TTM | 37.8× |
| P/E · NTM | 37.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 31.4× |
| P / S | 21.0× |
| P/E vs 5y avg | −29% |
At current $214.86, the market is pricing in roughly 34% annualized free-cash-flow growth over the next five years — the reverse DCF's implied rate. That is a meaningful deceleration from NVIDIA's realized five-year FCF CAGR of ~59%, yet it still sits well above any plausible semiconductor sector norm and demands scrutiny against what the business can fundamentally support. With fiscal 2026 operating margins near 60% and debt/equity of just 0.07, reinvestment capacity is real, but sustaining 34% FCF growth at this revenue base (~$216B) implies continued compounding into an addressable market that must itself expand dramatically. The implied growth is aggressive by sector standards — not indefensible given NVIDIA's positioning, but it leaves no margin for cyclical softening, competitive inroads, or export-control disruption.
NVIDIA reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results on May 20, 2026, with the 8-K filing confirming results for the quarter ended April 26, 2026. The next earnings release — covering Q2 fiscal 2027 — has no publicly confirmed date in available data, but based on prior cadence would be expected in mid-to-late August 2026; investors should watch for gross margin trajectory given the FY2026 compression to 71.1% from the 75.0% peak in FY2025, as Blackwell ramp costs remain a focal point.
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